Come What May
The below is an effort to articulate something concrete about tackling unknown unknowns and existential threats—the ones that we know are coming (Competitors, Changing consumer preferences) and the kind that show up unannounced and don’t wait for an invitation (Co-Founder Quits). I’m a founder, and I invest in founders. Disruption is the game, and there’s no fallback plan. Every day brings a fresh problem with the potential to derail everything.
The only way forward is to make sense of the chaos, stock up on lead bullets, and deal with it head-on. What follows is how I approach that task. It’s not perfect, but it works for me. Hopefully, there’s something in here that works for you too.
The Law of Requisite Variety
I’ve been thinking a lot about complexity lately—how some people navigate it effortlessly while others get swept away. Maybe it’s because I’ve always lived at the crossroads of complexity. I didn’t grow up poor, but I wasn’t far removed from it either. Some of my relatives lived that reality every day. When we visited them—on odd weekends—my brother and I stepped into their world, eating what they ate, sleeping where they slept, and even getting tangled in their street disputes. Mondays, I’d return to school with the kids of the politicians responsible for shaping those streets. I am just one person removed from four current sitting presidents, a King & I personally know more ministers, CEO’s & ambassadors than I care to mention. Weekdays were a masterclass in ambition and privilege; odd weekends, a front-row seat to the fallout of policies drafted in boardrooms far removed from reality.
Life taught me early that complexity isn’t something to be solved—it’s something to be managed, lived, and sometimes even embraced. The homie Heraclitus had it right: Panta Rhei—everything flows. Life is constant change. But navigating it requires more than just acceptance. You need tools buddy. You need variety.
Ashby’s Law, or the Law of Requisite Variety, puts it bluntly: the system that can adapt to the greatest variety will control the situation. The more dynamic you are, the more you thrive. And perhaps that’s why I’ve always found myself at home in complexity.
A Privileged Education in Adaptability
My upbringing was, in many ways, a privilege. Moving between three countries exposed me to distinctly different cultures and languages (I speak four, not many people know this about me). It was more than just a change of scenery—it was an education in how people see the world. The languages weren’t just tools for communication; they were keys to understanding.
Living in three countries gave me a front-row seat to the richness of variety—and the threats it can pose. Life was fluid, unpredictable. But instead of resisting it, I learned to ride the currents. The other homie Nietzsche’s Amor Fati—the love of fate—resonates deeply here. To love what happens, not as an obstacle to your plans, but as part of your story, is a powerful tool for navigating chaos. Just to be clear; If you’re one of the founders in my portfolio, do not quote this bit of Nietzsche back to me if you have not delivered.
Still, adaptability isn’t reserved for those with experiences like mine. You don’t need to speak multiple languages or straddle different socioeconomic realities to cultivate it. What you do need is the willingness to engage with the unfamiliar and the humility to learn from it.
More on this Law that isn’t Moore’s but Darwinian
The core idea is that for a system to survive and thrive in an unpredictable environment, it needs a range of responses that match the complexity of the problems it faces. If your environment throws 10 different challenges at you, but your system can only handle 5 of them—guess what? You’re going to lose control.
This applies to everything. When the chatbot that you are speaking to eventually has no choice but to connect you to a human agent? Yeah – its internal training does not match the external complexity that you are presenting it. How many potential customers is this business losing? & For those who do not yet understand – now do you see why AGI will change everything?
If you’re rigid and can’t keep up with unexpected changes, you will eventually break down. Same with your system. However, buddy, if you / your system are flexible one? You will win.
It’s not just about survival of the fittest but survival of the most adaptable.
When Adaptability Fails IRL
Take Harry, a friend of mine, and his experience with someone we’ll call Hanani. Harry is a man who prides himself on being a good judge of character. His life is built on understanding people. So when Hanani told him, “I’ll reach out when I’m ready,” he believed her.
For five months, Harry waited. No call. No text. Nothing. He replayed every interaction, combing through her words for hidden meanings. Friends called him naïve. Some said he was being ridiculous & thought that it was ego. But Harry wasn’t naïve; he was rigid. He couldn’t fathom a complexity where someone he admired could ghost him.
Harry’s reaction isn’t uncommon. Most of us aren’t taught how to handle emotional ambiguity. Society loves control—we seek closure, finality, a clear explanation. Ambiguity feels like chaos, and chaos terrifies us. Harry’s rigidity mirrored a broader societal discomfort with uncertainty.
But what if Harry had embraced Ashby’s Law? What if he’d allowed for more responses, more possibilities? What if he’d asked, “What if her silence isn’t about me?” or “What if I’ve misunderstood her entirely?” Adaptability in relationships isn’t about detachment; it’s about recognising that people are complex, and so are their reasons. I won’t elaborate on this because the idea is to get what I’m getting at.
Complexity in Business
Business is rife with examples of companies that failed to adapt. Kodak, once a giant in photography, dropped the ball. How do you invent the digital camera but chose to suppress it, fearing it would cannibalise their film business? Imagine if Reed Hasting’s suppressed streaming!
Instead of Kodak adapting to a world that was clearly shifting toward digital, they clung to the old model—and the world moved on without them.
Contrast this with Amazon.
As someone that has previously Invested in tiny retail operations or E-Commerce businesses that all failed, I can tell you first hand that retail is chaos incarnate: changing consumer preferences, supply chain disruptions, and technological shifts. Amazon didn’t just adapt; they thrived. By building their own delivery network, optimising inventory through algorithms, and expanding into new markets, they embodied Ashby’s Law. Where Kodak saw threats in variety, Amazon saw opportunity.
If, however, your spouse suggested introducing a third party for the sake of variety - you might want to apply Kodak’s strategy. Unless of course ... anyway.
Building for Complexity
Now, as I support in building one of the Start-Up’s that I’m backing, we will call it Suit, Ashby’s Law feels less like a concept and more like a mandate. It’s product exists because of the chaos that exists in trying to execute continental trade on the African continent. Suit’s product has to navigate the kind of complexity that locks most people out. Here’s the challenge: how do you create a system flexible enough to handle chaos without collapsing under its weight? Tips anyone?
Ashby offers two paths:
Increase your variety: Add tools, talent, and strategies to tackle as many challenges as possible.
Simplify the environment: Standardise processes, eliminate friction, and rewrite the rules of engagement.
The best approach probably contains elements of both. We would like to do business across Africa with the seamlessness of the EU. That’s the vision. But it’s not just about logistics—it’s about people. The complexity isn’t just regulatory; it’s human.
Full Circle
Looking back, those weekends with my relatives weren’t just about surviving the streets. They were about understanding them. They taught me that adaptability isn’t just a skill—it’s a mindset. And Mondays, sitting in classrooms with the children of the elite, taught me something else: complexity isn’t always fair.
My life straddled worlds that most people never see together. It gave me an appreciation for variety—not just as a richness to be embraced, but as a challenge to be met. Ashby’s Law is, at its heart, a call to action: to match the variety of life with a variety of responses.
Whether in business, relationships, or life, the lesson is the same: control doesn’t come from rigidity; it comes from adaptability. To reference the homie Heraclitus again, Panta Rhei. Everything flows. The question is: are you flowing with it, or are you getting swept away?
Argument at my social club
I shared the draft of this piece with 8 people. 7 of the 8 (I clearly need to explore a wider variety of friends) raised Pareto Principle, commonly known as the 80/20 rule. It teaches that 80% of outcomes come from 20% of causes. They believe that ones focus should be more on Impact , not on control as Ashby’s Law suggests.
My friend, and family for that matter often accuse me of being all Big Homie Hadrian, Peace Through Strength, but I promise - that’s not what is going here. (Hadrian is 100% correct though)
The Pareto Principle teaches you to focus on the few things that matter most. But Ashby’s Law? It tells you that if you don’t have enough tools or responses to meet the challenges in your environment, no amount of focus will save you.
The two concepts go hand in hand. Focus on the right things—but stay flexible enough to adapt when those things change.
To the streets
I admire you for how you code-switch so successfully, I’m sorry that you have to.