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The Myth We Keep Telling Ourselves
Bro, let’s be honest. People talk about Product-Market Fit (PMF) with reverence, like it’s some mystical checkpoint you stamp on a startup passport. Founders chase it, investors demand it, and it’s touted as the key milestone for startups. "We’ve achieved PMF!" they declare.
My provocative claim: most founders don’t understand what Product-Market Fit looks like, let alone how to truly achieve it.
The Traditional Wisdom (And Why It’s BS)
The standard narrative goes something like this: build a product, get some customers, see if they keep paying. If retention looks good, boom – PMF achieved! Bro, that’s like saying you’ve mastered relationships because you’ve been on three dates. It’s reductive, superficial, and misses the entire bloody point.
How do I know this? I’ve seen it firsthand. Back in London, I used to make small investments in startups, purely betting on their ability to hit PMF. The strategy was simple: back a startup with $5-10k, then cash out when they raised their next round (Contractual). Seed investors were obsessed with PMF, which often meant landing three enterprise sales (Dumb). In the very next round when these startups raised $500k to $1M, I’d take my 10x return and move on. Easy money, right? Except none of these companies succeeded in the long term. It taught me that PMF doesn’t align with resilience. That’s the rub—PMF is often a mirage, not the milestone we’re sold.
Real PMF: A More Nuanced Beast
When Spotify launched, the music industry thought they were mad. Streaming? That’s just Napster all over again, they said, - but Spotify didn’t just build a product; they reimagined the relationship between listeners, artists, and music consumption.
Their PMF wasn’t about having users—it was about solving systemic problems:
Listeners got unlimited, personalised music.
Artists gained a new revenue stream.
Record labels found a legal alternative to piracy.
That’s not just PMF. That’s ecosystem transformation.
Compare that to Juicero, the infamous startup that raised $120M for a high-tech juicer. They thought PMF meant selling expensive gadgets to early adopters. When it was revealed you could squeeze their juice packs by hand, the illusion shattered. They’d mistaken niche enthusiasm for sustainable demand. Their PMF was shallow, built on vanity metrics and short-term hype.
The Three-Dimensional PMF Checklist
Here’s my take on what true PMF looks like:
1. Urgency of Need
Are customers actively seeking you out, or are you constantly pushing?
When Stripe launched, developers weren’t just interested; they were desperate for a payment solution that didn’t feel like a bureaucratic nightmare.
2. Ecosystem Transformation
Does your product create ripple effects beyond its immediate use case?
Shopify (Not Spotify) didn’t just build an e-commerce platform. They democratised entrepreneurship, giving millions the tools to start businesses from their bedrooms.
3. Scalable Value Creation
Can your solution grow exponentially without proportional input?
OpenAI isn’t just selling an API. They’re reshaping how intelligent systems are conceived and deployed.
A Philosophical Lens: Impermanence, Antifragility, and Value Resonance
One of the most valuable lessons I’ve learned is the concept of impermanence, borrowed from Buddhist philosophy. Everything changes—markets, customer preferences, competitors. Building as if PMF is permanent is like clinging to a sandcastle at high tide.
This is where antifragility, a concept from Nassim Taleb, comes into play. Antifragile systems don’t just survive change; they thrive on it. Products built with this mindset adapt and improve as markets shift. Spotify is a prime example. They’ve continuously evolved—expanding into podcasts, personalisation, and artist tools—ensuring their PMF remains relevant. Ashby’s law?
Then there’s value resonance. Instead of obsessing over PMF as a static achievement, focus on aligning your product with enduring customer needs. It’s not about fitting a market once; it’s about maintaining harmony as that market evolves.
The Brutal Self-Assessment
Ask yourself:
If my company disappeared tomorrow, would my customers feel genuine pain?
Am I solving a symptom or a root cause?
Can my solution scale without becoming incrementally more complex?
Most founders shy away from these questions. But answering them honestly is the first step towards building something truly resilient.
Closing Thoughts: Build for Resilience, Not Just Fit
PMF isn’t a destination. It’s a dialogue, an ongoing conversation between your product and a changing market. The goal isn’t just to achieve PMF once but to earn it continuously.
So, to all the founders (and Investors) reading this: stop chasing vanity metrics. Stop believing your own marketing. Start obsessing over systemic challenges and enduring value. Build something that grows stronger with change, something antifragile. Because if there’s one certainty in business, it’s this: change is inevitable. The question is whether you’ll embrace it or be swept away by it.